This is the fourth and possibly final bet of the week for the 2019 NFL season. Where I choose the team I believe has the best chance to cover the spread and not only recommend people put some of their money on the line, but I will put my own money on the line.
After last week’s embarrassing Raiders’ pick, I’m going to play it safe and pick a favorite for the first time this season. The Dallas Cowboys are -2.5 road favorites over the New Orleans Saints. With Drew Brees injured and Teddy Bridgewater starting, it’s surprising that the Cowboys are only favored by a field goal. I see this game similar to my week two prediction of the Colts, in that people are overrating a team based off of an impressive performance the previous week.
The Saints beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-27 on the road last week, but a close look at their scoring drives reveal a victory that is closer to a fluke than an example of a great team. The Saints scored a touchdown on a punt return and fumble return, while being out gained by 249 yards on offense by the Seahawks.
The Seahawks defense has been uncharacteristically bad for the Pete Carroll era. They allow 26.3 points per game, which is one point less than the Saints, who are ranked 25th. The Saints also have the 25th ranked run defense, but the fourth ranked pass defense in yards give up per game.
Due to the Cowboys beating the 0-3 Miami Dolphins, 0-3 Washington Redskins, and 1-2 New York Giants, there’s no point going over how good their stats are after three games. But they have one of the best running backs in the league in Ezekiel Elliott, and tend to play great against the Saints. Last season the Cowboys’ defense held a Drew Brees lead Saints to 10 points in their 13-10 victory. And the Cowboys lost 26-20 in overtime to the Brees lead Saints in 2015, the last time the two teams played against each other before 2018, with Brandon Weeden starting at quarterback, a player that has completed only 57.9 percent of his pass and has only one more touchdown than interception for his career.
I expect the Cowboys to win by more than a touchdown, so only needing them to win by a field goal, made them the easy bet of the week.