This is the second bet of the week for the 2019 NFL season. Where I choose the team I believe has the best chance to cover the spread and not only recommend people put some of their money on the line, but I will put my own money on the line.
After correctly picking the Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears in 2019’s first bet of the week, I’m choosing another underdog in the Indianapolis Colts to not only beat their +3.5 spread against the Tennessee Titans, but to win the game.
The Titans 43-13 destruction of the Cleveland Browns in their season opener, caused many people to question if the Browns are finally a good team and whether the Titans should be favored to win the AFC South. While I’m not dealing with the Browns this week, I have doubts on whether the Titans are as good as they seemed in week one. Last season the Titans’ defense gave up the third least amount of points per game with 18.9 points, which was nine spots ahead of the Colts. Despite the Titans’ great defense, the Colts scored 38 and 33 points that resulted in blowout wins in both of their games against the Titans last season. Both games featured Andrew Luck playing for the Colts and Blaine Gabbert for the Titans, so there’s no reason to think a Jacoby Brissett lead Colts’ team against a Marcus Mariota Titans’ team will have the same result. But both Colts’ head coach Frank Reich and Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel were in their first year of head coaching, and Reich clearly out coached Vrabel.
While the Titans easily won their week one game and the Colts lost their game against the San Diego Chargers 30-24 in overtime, the Colts had the more impressive offensive performance. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield’s three interceptions helped a Titans offense whose starting running back only had 84 yards on 19 carries and quarterback completed 58.3 percent of his passes. In their lost against the Chargers, Colts running back Marlon Mack ran for 174 yards on 25 carries and Brissett completed 77.8 percent of his passes.
If Brissett is 80 percent as good as he played in game one, it’s likely that the Colts are a better team than the Titans. Before Luck’s retirement, analysts were already choosing the Colts to win the AFC South, and in a scenario were you win if the Colts lose by a field goal, I feel comfortable betting and recommending you beat on the Colts to cover the spread.