This is the first bet of the week bet for the 2019 NFL season. For at least the first four weeks, I’ll choose the team I believe has the best chance to cover the spread and not only recommend people put some of their money on the line, but I will put my own money on the line.
The Green Bay Packers play the Chicago Bears on the road for the season opener of the 2019 NFL season and are three point underdogs. Despite losing to the Bears 24-17 the last time the two played and finishing the 2018 season with a worse record than them, in the 21 games Rodgers has started against the Bears, he has won 16 of them. Rodgers has won the season opener for the last for years in a row and the Packers were +3.5 early last week before improving a half-point by the weekend, meaning enough people bet on the Packers to force oddsmakers to improve their chances.
The reason I’m focusing so much on Rodgers’ resume, is due to him not playing a game in the preseason—despite reportedly being healthy—and having a new offensive system to adjust to under new head coach Matt LaFleur, so there’s no recent evidence to base my confidence on. But Rodgers was sacked 49 times last season and still managed to throw 25 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, while Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was sacked 24 times and only threw 24 touchdowns to 12 intercepts. As a Philadelphia Eagles’ fan that watched the Bears choke away a playoff victory in their 16-15 lost in the first round, I just don’t have a lot of confidence in the Bears.
The Bears’ defense was the best in the league in giving up the least amount of points per game with 17.7 points and the Packers were 22nd with 25 points. The Bears’ offense was also slightly better than the Packers’ offense. They scored 26.3 points per game to the Packers’ 23.5 points.
Despite having the better team, the Bears lost their season opener to the Packers last season 24-23 and teams with new head coaches tend to perform well early in the season before the league has had time team to adjust to their playstyle, so I’m comfortable betting them to beat the Bears on Thursday night.