Getting the Number One Pick Will Cost Chip Kelly More Than Most People Imagine

Philadelphia fans, Oregon fans, Philly area reports, and national sports writers have been clamoring for Eagles’ coach Chip Kelly to do whatever it takes to move up from 20 to 1 in the 2015 NFL draft to get the quarterback he coached in college to lead the Eagles, after taking the time to see how many draft picks it would realistically take to move up. I wonder how many people would be saying this is a good idea.

Using Matt Verderame’s May 8, 2014 article “NFL Draft trade value chart explained”, I applied the trade value chart real NFL general mangers use to make draft trades to design a trade between the 20th pick holding Eagles and 1st pick holding Buccaneers. Before I do the Eagles trade with the Buccaneers using the chart in the image shown above, I need to see if NFL teams really use the trade value chart. Using the RGIII trade and the Julio Jones trade as examples, we will see how accurate the trade value chart is.

In the 2012 draft the Redskins traded the no.6 pick, no.39 pick, a 2013 first round pick, and a 2014 first round pick, for the Rams’ no.2 pick. Using the trade value chart the Rams’ no.2 pick is worth 2,600 and the Redskins’ no.6 pick is 1,600 and no.39 pick is 510. If I add the two Redskins picks together and subtract them from the Rams pick, I have 490 points left over. While I would assume a first round pick in next years draft would be less than the lowest first round pick in the current draft due to having to wait an extra year and having no clue where the pick will land or who any of the players might be, but the lowest first round pick or no. 32 pick is worth 590, so I do not see how it would take two future first rounders to equal 490. So either the draft trade value chart is outdated or the Redskins drastically over paid.

While the Redskins example suggest that it would be impossible for the Eagles to move from 20 to 1, the Falcons moving from 27 to 6 could give people hoping for a reunion between Chip and Mariota reason to believe it might be possible. In the 2011 draft the Falcons traded no.27 pick, a 4th round pick they owned in the 2011 draft, a 2012 first round pick, and a 2012 4th round pick, for the no.6 pick from the Browns. The Browns no.6 pick is 1,600 subtracted from the Falcons’ no.27 pick 680, no.59 pick 310, and no.123 pick 49, if the fourth round pick the Falcons trade is their own, would leave 561 left. Based on this example we can assume that a future first round pick is worth at least 530 and a future fourth round pick is worth somewhere between 40 to 30. This suggest that the Falcons and Browns used the trade value chart, and that the Redskins drastically over paid, which would not be surprising with the way the Redskins have been run by owner Daniel Snyder.

Now that I am confident with my newfound knowledge about the trade value chart, it is time to find a way for the Eagles to trade with the Buccaneers to get the first overall pick. If I trade the Eagles entire draft and subtracted the amount from the Buccaneers no.1 3,000 pick, there would be 1,409 points left. The no.20 pick 850, no.52 pick 380, no.84 pick 170, no.111 pick, from the 49ers, 72, no.116 pick 62, no.148 pick 32, no.180 pick 19, and no.212 pick 6, which is a total of 1,591. For the Eagles to make this trade work they would most likely have to trade their 2016 first round pick, 2017 first round pick, 2016 second round pick, and a 2016 third, or fourth if the Buccaneers decide to give the Eagles a discount, but I have no clue how much a first round pick two years down the road is worth, round to go along with their entire 2015 draft.

Personally as an Eagles’ fan I would be furious if Chip made this trade and I believe the idea that Chip needs Mariota and Mariota needs Chip to be successful, is ridiculous. If Mariota is the next great quarterback he should be able to adapt to whatever system the coach that drafts him runs, people were not saying Andrew Luck needs to run the same offense he ran in Stanford to be successful, but to be fair the Colts did hire Stanford’s offensive coordinator to be their offensive coordinator after Bruce Arians left to coach the Cardinals after Luck’s first season. If Chip is a good coach he should be able to draft a quarterback in the second or third round that has the skill set he is looking and make him good or stick with Nick Foles, Rex Ryan could claim he would have won a Super Bowl if he had Tom Brady instead of Mark Sanchez, and he would be right any coach that does not have a great quarterback would be better if they had one saying Chip needs Mariota to be successful is an insult not a complement.

Author: Michael Bronson

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.